XEC declines to lowest close since September 28th
Cimarex Energy (XEC) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, XEC finished the week -6.2% lower at 93.03 after losing $1.53 (-1.62%) today on high volume, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (1.42%). Today's close at 93.03 marks the lowest recorded closing price since September 28th. Closing below Thursday's low at 93.80, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $3.17 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (XEC as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $6.13 (6.39%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $2.71. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for XEC.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar.
After trading as low as 90.63 during the day, Cimarex Energy found support at the 100-day moving average at 92.35. The last time this happened on August 7th, XEC actually lost -8.62% on the following trading day. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 96.74 (R2), the stock closed below it after spiking up to 96.76 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward. After having been unable to move above 96.51 in the prior session, the share ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 96.76.
Although XEC is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Resistance R2" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Cimarex Energy. Out of 21 times, XEC closed lower 57.14% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 57.14% with an average market move of -0.07%.