WU closes within prior day's range after lackluster session
Western Union Company (WU) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
WU ended the week -5.1% lower at 26.24 after gaining $0.18 (0.69%) today, outperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (WU as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.31 (1.19%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.52. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for WU. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 25.65 and 26.60 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar.
Western Union managed to close back above the 100-day moving average at 26.11. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 26.60 (R1).
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 27.36. The last time this happened on January 7th, WU gained 0.89% on the following trading day.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 26.60 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 25.65 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 25.61, downside momentum might accelerate should the stock break out to new lows for the year.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close crossed above the lower Bollinger Band" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Western Union. Out of 68 times, WU closed higher 55.88% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.88% with an average market move of 0.70%.