VVV finds support at 100-day moving average
Valvoline Inc. (VVV) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 6th day in a row, VVV finished the week -3.82% lower at 21.90 after losing $0.02 (-0.09%) today, slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (VVV as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.23 (1.05%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.42. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for VVV.
After trading as low as 21.86 during the day, the stock found support at the 100-day moving average at 21.87. The last time this happened on December 12, 2019, VVV actually lost -3.30% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move lower than 21.88 in the prior session, the share found buyers again around the same price level today at 21.86.
Though the market is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Bounce off SMA 100" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Valvoline. Out of 13 times, VVV closed higher 69.23% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 46.15% with an average market move of 0.20%.