VST declines to lowest close since December 24, 2018
Vistra Energy Corp. (VST) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 16, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, VST ended Tuesday at 21.97 tanking $0.58 (-2.57%), significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (-0.34%). This is the biggest single-day loss in over two weeks. Today's close at 21.97 marks the lowest recorded closing price since December 24, 2018. Closing below Monday's low at 22.35, the stock confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.49 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (VST as at Jul 16, 2019):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.78 (3.47%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.47. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for VST.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading down to 21.86 earlier during the day, the market bounced off the key technical support level at 21.89 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels importance as support going forward. When prices bounced off a significant support level the last time on July 11th, VST gained 0.85% on the following trading day. The share ran into sellers again today around 22.64 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 22.64 in the prior session and at 22.72 two days ago.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Down Close Near Low of Period" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Vistra Energy. Out of 111 times, VST closed higher 53.15% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.76% with an average market move of 1.30%.