VST finds buyers again around 22.22
Vistra Energy Corp. (VST) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 12, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
VST ended the week 0.18% higher at 22.58 after gaining $0.19 (0.85%) today on low volume, slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (0.46%). Trading up to $0.25 lower after the open, Vistra Energy managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (VST as at Jul 12, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $0.50 (2.23%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.46. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for VST. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 22.16 and 22.75 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 22.85 (R1). After having been unable to move lower than 22.16 in the previous session, the share found buyers again around the same price level today at 22.22. The last time this happened on July 2nd, VST actually lost -0.35% on the following trading day.
Though the stock is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 22.75 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 22.16 where further sell stops might get activated. With prices trading close to this year's low at 21.89, downside momentum could speed up should the market break out to new lows for the year.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Vistra Energy. Out of 181 times, VST closed higher 54.14% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.33% with an average market move of 1.45%.