VMC breaks below Thursday's low
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, VMC finished the month 1.36% higher at 117.42 after losing $2.26 (-1.89%) today on high volume, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.77%). Today's close at 117.42 marks the lowest recorded closing price since July 9th. Closing below Thursday's low at 118.59, Vulcan Materials confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $3.76 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (VMC as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $5.14 (4.3%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $2.96. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for VMC.
The share closed below the 50-day moving average at 118.05 for the first time since May 22nd. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on May 5th, VMC lost -7.15% on the following trading day.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
As prices are trading close to July's low at 114.33, downside momentum might speed up should the stock mark new lows for the month.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed below last periods low" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Vulcan Materials. Out of 440 times, VMC closed higher 56.36% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.41% with an average market move of 1.41%.