VLO closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, VLO ended the month -4.4% lower at 56.23 after edging lower $0.10 (-0.18%) today, underperforming the S&P 500 (0.77%). Trading up to $0.47 lower after the open, the share managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on Monday, VLO actually lost -1.96% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (VLO as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.39 (2.5%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.21. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for VLO.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 57.92 (R1).
While Valero Energy is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 54.40 where further sell stops could get triggered. As prices are trading close to July's high at 60.30, upside momentum might accelerate should the stock mark new highs for the month.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Valero Energy. Out of 314 times, VLO closed higher 56.37% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.87% with an average market move of 1.05%.