VFC still stuck within tight trading range
V.F. Corporation (VFC) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
VFC ended the week 0.84% higher at 83.66 after losing $0.39 (-0.46%) today, underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (VFC as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.30 (1.54%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.39. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for VFC. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 82.63 and 84.40 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on January 7th, VFC lost -1.70% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 84.61 (R1). The market found buyers again today around 83.10 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 83.16 in the prior session and at 83.24 two days ago.
Although the stock is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 82.63 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 82.24, downside momentum might accelerate should V. F. break out to new lows for the year.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous two Highs" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for V. F.. Out of 124 times, VFC closed higher 55.65% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.84% with an average market move of 0.64%.