VAR closes lower for the 3rd day in a row
Varian Medical Systems Inc. (VAR) Technical Analysis Report for Dec 07, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, VAR finished the week -3.71% lower at 118.81 after losing $2.03 (-1.68%) today, but still outperforming the S&P 500 (-2.33%) following today's NFP report. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (VAR as at Dec 07, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $3.53 (2.93%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $3.25. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for VAR.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 116.78 (S1). The market closed back below the 20-day moving average at 118.91 for the first time since November 27th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on November 19th, VAR lost -0.69% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 116.92 where further sell stops might get triggered. Further selling could move prices lower should the market test November's close-by low at 113.33.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 20" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Varian Medical. Out of 167 times, VAR closed higher 52.10% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.48% with an average market move of 1.05%.