URBN closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, URBN finished Wednesday at 23.17 losing $0.01 (-0.04%), but still slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.46%). Trading $0.21 higher after the open, the stock was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on September 1st, URBN actually gained 1.58% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (URBN as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $0.52 (2.23%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.10. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for URBN. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 22.79 and 24.12 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 22.79 (S1).
Although the market is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 24.12 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 22.79 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bearish for Urban Outfitters. Out of 758 times, URBN closed lower 49.60% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.01% with an average market move of -0.37%.