URBN closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
URBN finished the week 8.95% higher at 28.25 after edging higher $0.03 (0.11%) today, slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Trading $0.27 higher after the open, Urban Outfitters was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (URBN as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.56 (1.98%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.88. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for URBN.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 28.31 (R1). After having been unable to move above 28.66 in the prior session, the share ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 28.59.
Crossing below the upper Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their upward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 26.71. The last time this happened on January 8th, URBN lost -2.81% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 28.78 where further buy stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 29.78, upside momentum might accelerate should the market be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bearish for Urban Outfitters. Out of 764 times, URBN closed lower 50.52% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.58% with an average market move of -0.34%.