UPS closes higher for the 3rd day in a row
United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, UPS finished the month 28.4% higher at 142.76 after gaining $1.30 (0.92%) today, slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (0.77%). Today's close at 142.76 marks the highest recorded closing price ever. Trading up to $2.12 lower after the open, the stock managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UPS as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $4.43 (3.12%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $2.57. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for UPS.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top. The last time a Bullish Spinning Top showed up on July 24th, UPS gained 2.25% on the following trading day.
With another close above the upper Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong upward momentum in the short-term. A drop back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day though might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back down towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 120.08.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 145.50 where further buy stops could get triggered.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close above the upper Bollinger Band" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for United Parcel. Out of 171 times, UPS closed higher 54.39% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.23% with an average market move of 0.40%.