UPS finds buyers again around 104.68
United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
UPS finished the week 2.74% higher at 105.95 after gaining $0.71 (0.67%) today, slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UPS as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.51 (1.44%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.23. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly higher than usual for UPS. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 104.37 and 106.77 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 106.77 (R1). After having been unable to move lower than 104.37 in the prior session, the stock found buyers again around the same price level today at 104.68. The last time this happened on January 17th, UPS actually lost -1.02% on the following trading day.
Though the share is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 106.77 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 104.37 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous High" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for United Parcel. Out of 573 times, UPS closed higher 54.80% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.67% with an average market move of 0.24%.