UNP closes within prior day's range
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
UNP finished Wednesday at 201.42 losing $0.95 (-0.47%) on high volume, slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (-0.46%). Trading $2.04 higher after the open, the stock was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on September 4th, UNP lost -1.30% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UNP as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $4.67 (2.29%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $3.54. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for UNP.
With another close above the upper Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong upward momentum in the short-term. A drop back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day although could signal a potential change in momentum that might lead to a correction back down towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 194.16.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Down Close Near Low of Period" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Union Pacific. Out of 474 times, UNP closed higher 56.96% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.39% with an average market move of 1.04%.