UNP breaks back above 200-day moving average
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
UNP finished the week 9.2% higher at 165.16 after gaining $1.57 (0.96%) today on low volume, outperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Trading up to $1.52 lower after the open, the market managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UNP as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $3.27 (2.0%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $3.37. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for UNP.
The share managed to close back above the 200-day moving average at 164.81. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 166.23 (R1). After having been unable to move above 165.98 in the prior session, the stock ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 165.43. The last time this happened on May 15th, UNP actually gained 5.21% on the following trading day.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 168.70 where further buy stops could get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Break through SMA 200" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Union Pacific. Out of 20 times, UNP closed higher 55.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 70.00% with an average market move of 2.62%.