UNM runs into sellers again around 15.10
Unum Group (UNM) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
UNM ended the week 5.22% higher at 14.71 after losing $0.35 (-2.32%) today on low volume, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UNM as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.49 (3.26%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.84. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for UNM. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 14.45 and 15.10 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
After moving higher in the prior session, Unum Group closed lower but above the previous day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 14.39 (S1). After having been unable to move above 15.08 in the prior session, the stock ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 15.10. The last time this happened on May 12th, UNM lost -7.01% on the following trading day.
The share shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 15.38 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 14.45 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Black Candle" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Unum Group. Out of 519 times, UNM closed higher 56.26% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.68% with an average market move of 0.18%.