UMPQ finds support at 50-day moving average
Umpqua Holdings Corporation (UMPQ) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
UMPQ ended Wednesday at 11.30 gaining $0.03 (0.27%), outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.46%). Trading up to $0.18 lower after the open, the share managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on September 4th, UMPQ actually lost -5.15% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UMPQ as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $0.42 (3.73%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.34. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for UMPQ. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 11.07 and 11.56 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish High-Wave Candle and the Bullish Spinning Top which are both known as bullish patterns.
After trading as low as 11.07 during the day, the stock found support at the 50-day moving average at 11.18.
Although the market is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 11.56 where further buy stops might get triggered. Further selling could move prices lower should the market test August's close-by low at 10.64.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Support S1" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Umpqua Holdings. Out of 553 times, UMPQ closed higher 55.88% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.71% with an average market move of 0.12%.