UMPQ unable to break through key resistance level
Umpqua Holdings Corporation (UMPQ) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
UMPQ ended the week 1.71% higher at 17.82 after losing $0.14 (-0.78%) today, underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UMPQ as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.27 (1.51%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.35. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for UMPQ. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 17.60 and 17.99 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
After moving higher in the previous session, Umpqua Holdings closed lower but above the prior day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Tweezer Top.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 17.91 (R1), the stock closed below it after spiking up to 17.99 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on Wednesday, UMPQ actually gained 1.30% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move above 17.99 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 17.99.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Harami Candle" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Umpqua Holdings. Out of 51 times, UMPQ closed higher 64.71% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.94% with an average market move of -0.03%.