UMBF runs into sellers again around 47.70
UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
UMBF ended the week 8.27% higher at 47.01 after edging lower $0.30 (-0.63%) today, underperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UMBF as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.09 (2.3%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.25. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for UMBF. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 44.36 and 47.70 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
After trading down to 46.61 earlier during the day, the share bounced off the key technical support level at 46.96 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels significance as support going forward. After having been unable to move above 47.68 in the previous session, the stock ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 47.70. The last time this happened on Tuesday, UMBF actually gained 5.05% on the following trading day.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 44.36 where further sell stops might get activated. As prices are trading close to May's high at 50.49, upside momentum could accelerate should UMB Financial mark new highs for the month.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Support S1" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for UMB Financial. Out of 513 times, UMBF closed higher 55.75% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 50.88% with an average market move of 0.36%.