UMBF still stuck within tight trading range
UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
UMBF finished the week 0.62% higher at 68.38 after losing $0.26 (-0.38%) today, underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UMBF as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.69 (1.01%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.26. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for UMBF. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 67.48 and 69.04 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. After moving higher in the prior session, the market closed lower but above the previous day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on December 11, 2019, UMBF actually gained 1.87% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Hanging Man.
Prices broke below the key technical support level at 68.48 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward. UMB Financial ran into sellers again today around 68.60 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 68.76 in the prior session and at 68.78 two days ago.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 69.04 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 67.69 where further sell stops might get triggered. As prices are trading close to February's low at 66.62, downside momentum could speed up should the stock mark new lows for the month.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Price broke through Technical Support S1" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for UMB Financial. Out of 255 times, UMBF closed higher 52.94% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after nine trading days, showing a win rate of 52.94% with an average market move of 0.22%.