ULTA closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, ULTA ended the week -0.47% lower at 294.57 after losing $2.52 (-0.85%) today on low volume, strongly underperforming the Nasdaq 100 (0.29%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Closing below Thursday's low at 295.50, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $2.07 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (ULTA as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $5.60 (1.88%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $6.73. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for ULTA.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern. The last time a Bullish Hikkake Pattern showed up on January 23rd, ULTA gained 0.29% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 290.03 (S1).
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 290.03 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Ulta Beauty. Out of 723 times, ULTA closed higher 53.39% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 62.10% with an average market move of 1.39%.