UGI still stuck within tight trading range
UGI Corporation (UGI) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, UGI ended Thursday at 26.25 gaining $1.49 (6.02%), slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (6.24%). The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UGI as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $1.96 (7.9%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.30. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for UGI. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 22.52 and 27.11 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
After having been unable to move above 26.39 in the previous session, the stock ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 26.47. The last time this happened on March 13th, UGI lost -17.13% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 27.11 where further buy stops might get triggered.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for UGI. Out of 729 times, UGI closed higher 52.95% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.02% with an average market move of 0.18%.