UAL closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
United Continental Holdings Inc. (UAL) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 02, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, UAL ended Thursday at 34.14 losing $0.31 (-0.9%) on low volume, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.45%) ahead of tomorrow's Independence Day OBS market holiday. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UAL as at Jul 02, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $2.13 (5.94%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $3.54. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for UAL.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Bearish Short Candle showed up on May 28th, UAL lost -2.94% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 31.84 (S1). After having been unable to move lower than 34.03 in the previous session, United Continental found buyers again around the same price level today at 33.95.
The share shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 31.81 where further sell stops could get triggered. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test June's close-by low at 27.95.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for United Continental. Out of 582 times, UAL closed higher 53.95% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.76% with an average market move of 1.22%.