UAL closes within previous day's range
United Continental Holdings (UAL) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, UAL ended the week -4.71% lower at 80.18 after edging higher $0.06 (0.07%) today, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (1.42%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UAL as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $2.10 (2.58%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $2.04. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for UAL.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle. The last time a Black Candle showed up on Wednesday, UAL actually gained 1.51% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 78.87 (S1). Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 82.04 (R1).
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 86.35.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 78.87 where further sell stops could get triggered. Trading close to August's low at 78.70 we might see further downside momentum if potential sell stops at the level get activated.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Black Candle" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for United Continental. Out of 548 times, UAL closed higher 51.64% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.85% with an average market move of 1.69%.