UAA fails to close above 200-day moving average
Under Armour Class A (UAA) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018
UAA ended the week -3.86% lower at 18.67 after gaining $0.44 (2.41%) today, outperforming the S&P 500 (1.42%). Trading up to $0.33 lower after the open, the stock managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (UAA as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $0.57 (3.07%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.77. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for UAA.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top and the Hammer which are both known as bullish patterns.
After spiking up to 18.80 during the day, Under Armour found resistance at the 200-day moving average at 18.78. After having been unable to move above 18.76 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 18.80. The last time this happened on October 1st, UAA lost -4.40% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Hammer" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Under Armour. Out of 27 times, UAA closed higher 55.56% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 62.96% with an average market move of 3.04%.