TSN breaks back below 20-day moving average
Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 13, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TSN ended Wednesday at 60.69 losing $0.69 (-1.12%), notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.3%). Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TSN as at Feb 13, 2019):
Wednesday's trading range has been $1.25 (2.03%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.31. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly lower than usual for TSN.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 59.53 (S1). The stock closed back below the 20-day moving average at 60.75. After having been unable to move above 61.70 in the prior session, the share ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 61.66. The last time this happened on Monday, TSN actually gained 3.28% on the following trading day.
Tyson Foods shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 61.70 where further buy stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 62.56, upside momentum might accelerate should the market be able to break out to new highs for the year. As prices are trading close to February's high at 62.46, upside momentum could speed up should TSN mark new highs for the month.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Black Candle" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Tyson Foods. Out of 514 times, TSN closed higher 54.28% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.17% with an average market move of 0.98%.