TSCO runs into sellers again around 87.87
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, TSCO ended the week -1.12% lower at 86.67 after gaining $1.44 (1.69%) today, notably underperforming the Nasdaq 100 (2.77%). Trading up to $1.22 lower after the open, the share managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TSCO as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $2.47 (2.85%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.94. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for TSCO.
Four candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Southern Doji which is known as bullish pattern and three neutral patterns, the Doji, the Long-Legged Doji and the Rickshaw-Man.
The market managed to break above the 50-day moving average at 86.52 today. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 86.82 (R1), the stock closed below it after spiking up to 87.87 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward. After having been unable to move above 87.79 in the previous session, Tractor Supply ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 87.87.
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and might now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 88.83. The last time this happened on March 26th, TSCO actually lost -1.21% on the following trading day.
Though TSCO is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Southern Doji" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Tractor Supply. Out of 53 times, TSCO closed higher 52.83% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 66.04% with an average market move of 2.86%.