TRV closes within prior day's range
The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TRV ended Wednesday at 113.17 gaining $1.02 (0.91%) on low volume, outperforming the Dow Indu. (0.13%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TRV as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $2.84 (2.53%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.90. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TRV.
After moving lower in the prior session, the stock managed to close higher but below the previous day's open, forming a bullish Harami Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 112.06 (S1). After having been unable to move lower than 112.06 in the prior session, the share found buyers again around the same price level today at 112.11. The last time this happened on September 11th, TRV gained 0.93% on the following trading day.
Although the market is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 115.23 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 112.06 where further sell stops might get triggered. Trading close to July's low at 109.09 we could see further downside momentum if potential sell stops at the level get activated.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Harami Candle" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for The Travelers. Out of 51 times, TRV closed higher 66.67% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after five trading days, showing a win rate of 47.06% with an average market move of 0.01%.