TRV climbs to highest close since April 30th
The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, TRV finished the week 10.84% higher at 100.10 after gaining $0.93 (0.94%) today, outperforming the Dow Indu. (-0.04%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Today's close at 100.10 marks the highest recorded closing price since April 30th. Trading up to $1.09 lower after the open, The Travelers managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on Wednesday, TRV gained 3.80% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TRV as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $2.01 (2.02%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $3.25. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for TRV.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 99.63 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward.
Though the stock is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 100.80 where further buy stops could get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for The Travelers. Out of 775 times, TRV closed higher 53.81% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.61% with an average market move of 0.28%.