TRV pushes through key technical resistance level
The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, TRV finished the week 1.29% higher at 137.76 after gaining $0.88 (0.64%) today, outperforming the Dow Indu. (-0.09%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Today's close at 137.76 marks the highest recorded closing price since January 22nd. Closing above Thursday's high at 137.16, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $0.99 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TRV as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $1.92 (1.41%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.01. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for TRV.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 137.32 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. The last time this happened on February 5th, TRV actually lost -0.20% on the following trading day.
Though still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "White Candle" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for The Travelers. Out of 615 times, TRV closed higher 51.54% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.05% with an average market move of 0.50%.