TPR breaks below Thursday's low
Coach Inc. (TPR) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 24, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TPR ended the week -1.39% lower at 13.47 after losing $0.40 (-2.88%) today, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (-0.62%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 13.48, the share confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.06 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TPR as at Jul 24, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.48 (3.48%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.64. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for TPR.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Black Candle showed up on Monday, TPR actually gained 4.04% on the following trading day.
The market closed back below the 50-day moving average at 13.90. After having been unable to move lower than 13.48 in the prior session, the stock found buyers again around the same price level today at 13.42.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 14.07 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 12.94 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Short Candle" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Coach. Out of 78 times, TPR closed higher 51.28% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after eight trading days, showing a win rate of 60.26% with an average market move of 1.31%.