TPR closes within prior day's range after lackluster session
Coach Inc. (TPR) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TPR finished the week 4.43% higher at 29.21 after gaining $0.38 (1.32%) today on low volume, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TPR as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.52 (1.8%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.74. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for TPR. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 28.54 and 29.49 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Short Candle and the White Candle which are both known as bullish patterns and one bearish pattern, the Last Engulfing Top Pattern. The last time a White Candle showed up on Wednesday, TPR actually lost -2.17% on the following trading day.
After trading down to 28.71 earlier during the day, the share bounced off the key technical support level at 28.79 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels significance as support going forward. After having been unable to move above 29.26 in the prior session, Coach ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 29.23.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 29.49 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 28.54 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Last Engulfing Top Pattern" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Coach. Out of 54 times, TPR closed lower 55.56% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.11% with an average market move of -0.92%.