TMHC breaks back above 20-day moving average
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation Class A (TMHC) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TMHC ended Wednesday at 25.80 surging $1.48 (6.09%), strongly outperforming the S&P 500 (-0.46%). This is the biggest single-day gain in over two months. Today's close at 25.80 marks the highest recorded closing price since August 24th. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Tuesday's high at 25.19, the share confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $0.92 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TMHC as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $1.56 (6.33%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.12. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for TMHC.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Taylor Morrison managed to close back above the 20-day moving average at 24.57. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 25.95 (R1), the market closed below it after spiking up to 26.11 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on September 3rd, TMHC lost -4.35% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Further buying might move prices higher should the market test August's nearby high at 26.21.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Break through SMA 20" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Taylor Morrison. Out of 114 times, TMHC closed higher 52.63% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.14% with an average market move of 1.06%.