TLRY breaks back below 100-day moving average
Tilray Inc. (TLRY) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TLRY ended the month 3.8% higher at 7.38 after losing $0.15 (-1.99%) today, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.77%). Trading $0.21 higher after the open, the share was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TLRY as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.42 (5.58%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.55. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TLRY.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 7.16 (S1). The stock closed back below the 100-day moving average at 7.49. Tilray found buyers again today around 7.32 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 7.37 in the previous session and at 7.37 two days ago. The last time this happened on May 20th, TLRY gained 19.88% on the following trading day.
Although the market is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 7.01 where further sell stops could get triggered. Trading close to May's low at 6.65 we might see further downside momentum if potential sell stops at the level get activated.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 100" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Tilray. Out of 1 times, TLRY closed lower 100.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 100.00% with an average market move of -15.86%.