TIF runs into sellers again around 126.88
Tiffany & Co. (TIF) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TIF finished the week -1.53% lower at 125.07 after tanking $1.29 (-1.02%) today, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Today's close at 125.07 marks the lowest recorded closing price since April 27th. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TIF as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $2.01 (1.59%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.34. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TIF.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 123.93 (S1). After having been unable to move above 126.62 in the prior session, the stock ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 126.88.
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since April 27th, prices have shown unusually strong downward momentum in the short-term. This could either indicate a potential selling climax after which prices might head back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 127.11 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices. The last time prices broke out below the lower Bollinger Band on April 23rd, TIF lost -0.56% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 123.93 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Tiffany & Co.. Out of 779 times, TIF closed higher 56.10% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.31% with an average market move of 1.03%.