TGT breaks back below 100-day moving average
Target Corporation (TGT) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TGT ended the week 0.88% higher at 116.63 after losing $1.65 (-1.39%) today, notably underperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 117.42, the share confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $1.12 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TGT as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $2.16 (1.83%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $2.02. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly lower than usual for TGT.
Regardless of a strong opening the market closed below the prior day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle. The last time a Bullish Hikkake Pattern showed up on December 11, 2019, TGT gained 1.37% on the following trading day.
Target closed back below the 100-day moving average at 117.02. The stock ran into sellers again today around 118.46 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 118.50 in the previous session and at 118.75 two days ago.
TGT shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 118.75 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 115.12 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the 12 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to prior two Highs" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Target. Out of 130 times, TGT closed higher 56.92% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after four trading days, showing a win rate of 57.69% with an average market move of -0.00%.