TFSL breaks back above 100-day moving average
TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) Technical Analysis Report for Apr 16, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TFSL ended Tuesday at 16.45 gaining $0.07 (0.43%), slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (0.05%). Trading up to $0.06 lower after the open, the share managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TFSL as at Apr 16, 2019):
Tuesday's trading range has been $0.14 (0.85%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.25. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TFSL.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Tweezer Bottom.
The market managed to close back above the 100-day moving average at 16.44. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on April 10th, TFSL actually lost -0.06% on the following trading day. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 16.51 (R1). TFS Financial found buyers again today around 16.33 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 16.33 in the previous session and at 16.33 two days ago.
The stock shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 16.65 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 16.29 where further sell stops might get triggered. As prices are trading close to April's low at 16.21, downside momentum could accelerate should TFSL mark new lows for the month.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Low close to prior two Lows" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for TFS Financial. Out of 177 times, TFSL closed lower 50.85% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.11% with an average market move of -0.13%.