TCL.AX plummets -1.56% closing $0.17 lower
Transurban Group NPV (TCL.AX) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018
Moving lower for the 5th day in a row, TCL.AX ended the week -3.51% lower at 10.73 after tanking $0.17 (-1.56%) today, significantly underperforming the market (ASX 50, 0.08%). This is the biggest single-day loss in over a week. The last time this happened on October 4th, TCL.AX gained 1.28% on the following trading day. Today's close at 10.73 marks the lowest recorded closing price since February 6, 2017. Trading $0.09 higher after the open, Transurban Group was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing below Thursday's low at 10.77, the stock confirms its breakout through the prior session's low having traded $0.09 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TCL.AX as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range was $0.22 (2.04%), that's far above last trading month's daily average range of $0.17. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the markets average with the monthly volatility being slightly below average.
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since October 4th, prices have reached an unusually low price in the short-term. This might either indicate a potential turning point back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 11.14 or signal a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the seven market conditions that our engine recognized today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based condition "Close crossed below the lower Bollinger Band" stands out. It's common interpretation of being bullish has so far been confirmed for Transurban Group in the past. Out of 63 times during the last ten years, TCL.AX closed higher 58.73% of the time on the next trading day. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 66.67% with an average market move of 1.25%.