TCF breaks back below 20-day moving average
TCF Financial Corporation (TCF) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, TCF ended the month -6.56% lower at 27.49 after losing $0.37 (-1.33%) today, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.77%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TCF as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.93 (3.36%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.36. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for TCF.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Takuri Line. The last time a Takuri Line showed up on June 12th, TCF gained 3.55% on the following trading day.
The market closed back below the 20-day moving average at 27.81. After having been unable to move lower than 26.74 in the previous session, TCF Financial found buyers again around the same price level today at 26.78.
The stock shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 28.15 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 26.00 where further sell stops might get activated. As prices are trading close to July's low at 25.78, downside momentum could accelerate should the share mark new lows for the month.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to prior High" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for TCF Financial. Out of 665 times, TCF closed higher 53.83% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.04% with an average market move of 0.51%.