TAH.AX breaks below 200-day moving average for the first time since January 10th
Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TAH.AX) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 13, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, TAH.AX finished Wednesday at 4.58 tanking $0.19 (-3.98%) on high volume, significantly underperforming the ASX 200 (-0.25%). This is the biggest single-day loss in over a year. Today's close at 4.58 marks the lowest recorded closing price since January 10th. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Tuesday's low at 4.76, Tabcorp Holdings confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.22 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TAH.AX as at Feb 13, 2019):
Wednesday's trading range has been $0.29 (6.04%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.08. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably lower than usual for TAH.AX.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading as low as 4.54 during the day, the stock found support at the 100-day moving average at 4.57. The last time this happened on October 24, 2018, TAH.AX actually lost -3.38% on the following trading day. The market closed below the 200-day moving average at 4.61 for the first time since January 10th.
The share shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Among the 15 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed below last periods low" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Tabcorp Holdings. Out of 241 times, TAH.AX closed higher 55.60% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after seven trading days, showing a win rate of 53.11% with an average market move of 0.22%.