SUPN closes within prior day's range after lackluster session
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SUPN) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, SUPN finished the week 0.29% higher at 24.00 after edging higher $0.06 (0.25%) today, slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (0.18%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Today's close at 24.00 marks the highest recorded closing price since January 23rd. Trading up to $0.22 lower after the open, the share managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on Wednesday, SUPN gained 1.27% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SUPN as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.39 (1.63%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.59. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for SUPN. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 23.37 and 24.22 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 24.38 (R1).
While still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 24.22 where further buy stops could get activated. With prices trading close to this year's high at 25.16, upside momentum might accelerate should the market be able to break out to new highs for the year. With prices trading close to this year's low at 22.71, downside momentum could speed up should Supernus Pharmaceuticals break out to new lows for the year.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "3 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Supernus Pharmaceuticals. Out of 122 times, SUPN closed lower 53.28% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after nine trading days, showing a win rate of 54.10% with an average market move of -0.24%.