STX drops to lowest close since October 14, 2019
Seagate Technology PLC (STX) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, STX finished the week -0.2% lower at 53.99 after losing $1.81 (-3.24%) today, significantly underperforming the Nasdaq 100 (0.29%) ahead of tomorrow's Presidents' Day market holiday. Today's close at 53.99 marks the lowest recorded closing price since October 14, 2019. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 55.40, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $1.67 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (STX as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $2.27 (4.06%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.47. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for STX.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle.
Prices broke below the key technical support level at 54.61 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward. The last time this happened on February 7th, STX actually gained 1.55% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move above 56.16 in the previous session, the share ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 56.00.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 53.70 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Seagate Technology. Out of 705 times, STX closed higher 55.32% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.48% with an average market move of 0.53%.