SPR.DE closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Axel Springer SE (SPR.DE) Technical Analysis Report for Dec 07, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SPR.DE finished the week -7.1% lower at 52.30 after losing €0.70 (-1.32%) today on high volume, notably underperforming the MDAX (0.39%). Today's close at 52.30 marks the lowest recorded closing price since September 12, 2017. Trading €0.75 higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SPR.DE as at Dec 07, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been €1.65 (3.1%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of €1.48. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for SPR.DE.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Closing Marubozu and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 53.90 (R1), Axel Springer closed below it after spiking up to 53.95 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on November 23rd, SPR.DE actually gained 2.97% on the following trading day.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day though might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 56.15.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 51.20 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Closing Marubozu" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Axel Springer. Out of 49 times, SPR.DE closed higher 69.39% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.14% with an average market move of 1.22%.