SPG closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, SPG ended the month -8.82% lower at 62.35 after losing $1.27 (-2.0%) today, strongly underperforming the S&P 500 (0.77%). Closing below Thursday's low at 62.62, Simon Property confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $1.12 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SPG as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $2.40 (3.79%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.69. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for SPG.
The stock closed back below the 100-day moving average at 63.04. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on June 9th, SPG lost -4.00% on the following trading day.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 65.63 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 59.03 where further sell stops could get triggered. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test June's nearby low at 56.86.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 100" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Simon Property. Out of 70 times, SPG closed higher 61.43% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.14% with an average market move of 0.72%.