SPG closes within prior day's range after lackluster session
Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SPG finished Thursday at 62.10 edging lower $0.24 (-0.38%), significantly underperforming the S&P 500 (6.24%). Trading $2.80 higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SPG as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $7.09 (11.31%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $9.47. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for SPG.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top. The last time a Bearish Spinning Top showed up on February 28th, SPG actually gained 3.36% on the following trading day.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 63.41 (R1), Simon Property closed below it after spiking up to 65.49 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 69.54 where further buy stops could get activated.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bearish Intraday Reversal" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Simon Property. Out of 381 times, SPG closed higher 56.43% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.84% with an average market move of 0.60%.