SPCE pushes through Monday's high
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SPCE ended the month -4.11% lower at 16.34 after gaining $0.92 (5.97%) today, strongly outperforming the S&P 500 (1.54%). The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Monday's high at 15.59, the stock confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to $0.81 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SPCE as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $1.45 (9.53%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.07. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently just the same than usual for SPCE. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 14.65 and 16.61 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Regardless of a weak opening the share managed to close above the prior day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
The market managed to close back above the 20-day moving average at 15.77 for the first time since June 23rd. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on June 22nd, SPCE actually lost -5.41% on the following trading day.
While Virgin Galactic is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Engulfing Candle" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Virgin Galactic. Out of 9 times, SPCE closed lower 66.67% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 77.78% with an average market move of -4.69%.