SJM ends the day on a bearish note closing near the low of the day
J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, SJM ended Wednesday at 110.82 losing $1.58 (-1.41%), underperforming the S&P 500 (-0.46%). Today's close at 110.82 marks the lowest recorded closing price since August 6th. Trading $1.00 higher after the open, the share was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on Monday, SJM lost -0.93% on the following trading day. Ending with a weak close near the low of the day sets a bearish note for the next session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SJM as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $2.30 (2.06%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.71. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for SJM.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 110.25 (S1). The market closed below the 100-day moving average at 111.39 for the first time since August 6th.
The stock shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Further selling could move prices lower should the market test August's nearby low at 109.11.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for J. M. Smucker. Out of 301 times, SJM closed higher 52.16% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.48% with an average market move of 0.66%.