SJM breaks back above 200-day moving average
J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SJM finished the week -5.38% lower at 108.56 after gaining $0.66 (0.61%) today on low volume, slightly outperforming the S&P 500 (0.24%) ahead of tomorrow's Memorial Day market holiday. Trading up to $0.91 lower after the open, the stock managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on May 11th, SJM gained 0.92% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SJM as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $2.35 (2.18%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $3.24. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for SJM.
The share managed to close back above the 200-day moving average at 108.47.
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 114.60.
While the market is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close crossed above the lower Bollinger Band" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for J. M. Smucker. Out of 67 times, SJM closed higher 56.72% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 65.67% with an average market move of 0.98%.