SJM closes within prior day's range after lackluster session
Smucker (J.M.) (SJM) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 12, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SJM ended the week 0.2% higher at 103.16 after gaining $0.99 (0.97%) today on low volume, slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (1.42%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SJM as at Oct 12, 2018):
Friday's trading range has been $1.85 (1.81%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.22. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for SJM. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 101.41 and 105.25 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. After moving lower in the previous session, Smucker (J. M.) managed to close higher but below the prior day's open, forming a bullish Harami Candle. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle. The last time a White Candle showed up on Monday, SJM actually lost -2.33% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 101.41 (S1). Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 104.64 (R1).
Although the stock is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 105.12 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 101.41 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Close to S1 Support" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Smucker (J. M.). Out of 1,265 times, SJM closed higher 54.15% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.44% with an average market move of 0.65%.