SIRI closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SIRI finished Wednesday at 5.40 gaining $0.04 (0.75%) on high volume, strongly outperforming the Nasdaq 100 (-1.67%). Trading $0.09 higher after the open, Sirius XM was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on August 18th, SIRI lost -1.34% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SIRI as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been $0.14 (2.58%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $0.14. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for SIRI.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 5.33 (S1).
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day although might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 5.74.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 5.33 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close below the lower Bollinger Band" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Sirius XM. Out of 134 times, SIRI closed higher 59.70% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.70% with an average market move of 1.40%.